Ranking the difficultly of every Super League club’s run-in: Leigh Leopards among easiest, Leeds Rhinos toughest

Aaron Bower 15 Jul 2024 10:46 AM

There are just ten rounds of Super League fixtures remaining – and the race for the play-offs, among other things, is beginning to spark into life.

With loop fixtures making the run-in for every side looking markedly different, we’ve taken a look through the final fixtures of 2024 and attempted to rank every side based on how difficult their run-in is: from easiest to toughest.

By attributing a number to every club’s current league position and adding the numbers together for each club’s last ten games, we’ve worked out who has it easiest on the road to Old Trafford in Super League, and who’s got it all to do.

You can see our formula at the bottom – note: we have omitted the Round 2 fixture between Wigan Warriors and Leigh Leopards still to be played, for consistency purposes, so that every team has their last ten games ranked equally.

12. Catalans Dragons

Remaining games: Castleford Tigers, Hull FC, London Broncos, Huddersfield Giants, Hull KR, Leeds Rhinos, Wigan Warriors, Salford Red Devils, London Broncos, Hull FC

Catalans, by our reckoning – and a ranking of all teams’ current league positions, have the most favourable run-in on the road to the end of the season. There are two clear reasons why in our opinion: their next four league fixtures are against the bottom four of Super League, starting with Castleford Tigers this weekend.

But as well as that, they play the bottom two – Hull FC and London Broncos – twice in their final ten, meaning that almost half their fixtures are coming against the two weakest teams in Super League by some distance.

11. Leigh Leopards

Remaining games: London Broncos, St Helens, Castleford Tigers, Hull FC, Salford Red Devils, London Broncos, Warrington Wolves, Castleford Tigers, Hull KR, St Helens.

Like Catalans, Leigh play two of the teams near the bottom of the league twice before the end of the season. They have two ties against London Broncos and Castleford Tigers in their final ten, which may well prove to be vital if they want to make the play-offs.

Crucially for Leigh though, three of their final four are against teams currently sat in Super League’s top four: so if Adrian Lam’s side do take it to the wire, they will need an upset or two.

10. Warrington Wolves

Remaining games: St Helens, Wigan Warriors, Hull KR, London Broncos, Leeds Rhinos, Castleford Tigers, Leigh Leopards, St Helens, Huddersfield Giants, London Broncos

While Warrington’s run-in ranks as the third-easiest by the data, there’s an argument that the Wolves’ season could be defined over the next three weeks – when they face the other teams in the top four alongside them in consecutive weeks.

Beyond that though, they only play one team currently in the play-off places in their final seven games: St Helens again. That run-in also includes two games against London Broncos.

9. Salford Red Devils

Remaining games: Huddersfield Giants, Castleford Tigers, Leeds Rhinos, St Helens, Leigh Leopards, Huddersfield Giants, Hull KR, Catalans Dragons, Hull FC, Wigan Warriors

Only three of Salford’s last ten games are against teams currently in the top four – and they don’t have to face Wigan until the final round of the season. By then, they would have hoped to have tied up a play-off place.

With two games against Huddersfield Giants and fixtures against Castleford and Hull still to come too, Salford will hope they have enough winnable games to get over the line.

8. Castleford Tigers

Remaining games: Catalans Dragons, Salford Red Devils, Leigh Leopards, Hull KR, Huddersfield Giants, Warrington Wolves, Hull FC, Leigh Leopards, St Helens, Huddersfield Giants.

There is, essentially, only pride left to play for when it comes to Castleford in 2024. Their Round 24 match against Hull FC could be decisive in determining who finishes 10th and who finishes 11th – but they can at least take comfort from the fact they’ve played Wigan and St Helens for the final time in 2024.

7. Wigan Warriors

Remaining games: Hull FC, Warrington Wolves, Huddersfield Giants, Leeds Rhinos, St Helens, Hull FC, Catalans Dragons, Hull KR, Leeds Rhinos, Salford Red Devils

One would assume that by the time Wigan approach a tricky final month of the season, they will have wrapped up the League Leader’s Shield.

Two games against Hull FC are coming up before that finale, as well as games against Huddersfield and the game in hand versus Leigh.

6. Huddersfield Giants

Remaining games: Salford Red Devils, Leeds Rhinos, Wigan Warriors, Catalans Dragons, Hull FC, Salford Red Devils, St Helens, London Broncos, Warrington Wolves, Castleford Tigers

If Huddersfield stand any chance of reviving their slim play-off hopes, they likely have to win two huge fixtures coming up against the teams in sixth and seventh, Salford and Leeds. Things don’t really get any easier in the run-in – with games against the top two still to come.

5. Hull KR

Remaining games: Leeds Rhinos, London Broncos, Warrington Wolves, Castleford Tigers, Catalans Dragons, St Helens, Salford Red Devils, Wigan Warriors, Leigh Leopards, Leeds Rhinos

Rovers‘ final ten games start and finish with ties against Leeds Rhinos – but it is difficult not to be drawn to a run of fixtures in the middle of the block when they play the teams fourth, fifth and sixth in consecutive weeks.

That could go a long way towards determining where exactly they finish in the play-off places.

4. London Broncos

Remaining games: Leigh Leopards, Hull KR, Catalans Dragons, Warrington Wolves, Hull FC, Leigh Leopards, Leeds Rhinos, Huddersfield Giants, Catalans Dragons, Warrington Wolves.

It is a fairly tough run-in for a London side who are already looking odds-on to finish bottom of Super League.

The fact they have one more game against Hull FC to come, though – and the Black and Whites’ run-in is arguably tougher – means all hope is perhaps not yet lost.

3. St Helens

Remaining games: Warrington Wolves, Leigh Leopards, Hull FC, Salford Red Devils, Wigan Warriors, Hull KR, Huddersfield Giants, Warrington Wolves, Castleford Tigers, Leigh Leopards

St Helens will finish in the top four – but where depends largely on the games they play against the teams around them. Two ties against Warrington, the first of which is this weekend, plus games against almost all the other sides currently in the top six means their run-in is undoubtedly one of the hardest.

2. Hull FC

Remaining games: Wigan Warriors, Catalans Dragons, St Helens, Leigh Leopards, London Broncos, Wigan Warriors, Castleford Tigers, Leeds Rhinos, Salford Red Devils, Catalans Dragons.

Look away now, Hull FC fans.

Your run-in is certainly one of the toughest in Super League – with two games against reigning champions and table-toppers Wigan Warriors still to come. The fixtures against London and Castleford sandwiched either side of that second meeting with the Warriors could determine exactly where they finish.

1. Leeds Rhinos

Remaining games: Hull KR, Huddersfield Giants, Salford Red Devils, Wigan Warriors, Warrington Wolves, Catalans Dragons, London Broncos, Hull FC, Wigan Warriors, Hull KR

Brad Arthur has his work cut out from the get-go – with our view that Leeds‘ run-in is the toughest of them all in Super League in 2024.

They start and finish it with games against Hull KR and they would hope to be inside the play-offs before the final fortnight, given how they play Rovers and Wigan in consecutive weeks. Prior to that, they play the league’s bottom two: but who knows where the Rhinos will be by then.