Every single Super League permutation this weekend explained: including the WILDEST play-off race in history

We’re FIRMLY into the territory of the Super League season where things start to get decided in terms of who finishes where and whose campaigns will be extended into the play-offs.

So, we’ve put together this handy ‘permutation’ guide ahead of the weekend, which will see the penultimate round of the regular season played out.

By the time Catalans Dragons and London Broncos’ game in Perpignan comes to an end on Saturday night, so much could be decided but so much could also go down to the last round…

League Leaders’ Shield

Three teams can officially still lift the League Leaders’ Shield heading into Round 25, though that could well have changed come the conclusion of the weekend.

Warrington Wolves will no longer be able to finish top if either they fail to beat Huddersfield Giants OR Wigan Warriors win their game against Leeds Rhinos.

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Hull KR will no longer be able to finish top if they fail to beat Leigh Leopards AND Wigan pick up a win against Leeds.

Wigan will be crowned League Leaders’ Shield winners if Hull KR fail to beat Leigh and the Warriors avoid defeat against Leeds.

Essentially, Wigan must better Hull KR’s result to seal top spot. If that doesn’t happen, the race will go down to the final round.

QUIZ: Can you name every club to win the Super League Leaders’ Shield?

Play-offs – The ‘straight forward’ bits

The current top three mentioned above in Wigan, Hull KR and Warrington have all already secured their spot in the play-offs.

It’s then a five-club race for the remaining three spots, with Salford Red Devils in the driving seat as things stand.

4th-placed Salford could cement their top six spot if they win at Hull FC and two of Leigh (v Hull KR), St Helens (v Castleford Tigers), Leeds (v Wigan) and Catalans Dragons (v London Broncos) failed to win their respective games.

If Salford were to draw against Hull FC, that could also be enough to cement their top six spot. In that instance, Catalans would no longer be able to catch them regardless of their result this weekend, so the Red Devils would need at least one of St Helens and Leeds to be beaten.

5th-placed Leigh would need to beat Hull KR on Friday night and see at least two of St Helens, Leeds and Catalans beaten this weekend to book their top six spot.

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Play-offs – The definitely not ‘straight forward’ bits

Strap in folks, this is where it gets ridiculously more complicated…

St Helens currently sit 6th, and can NOT officially confirm their spot in the play-offs this weekend. They could come as close to doing, though it would take a minor miracle for that to be the case.

If Saints beat Castleford, they’ll move on to 30 competition points and with that result in isolation due to their points difference, they would move up to 4th.

Theoretically, if Salford, Leigh and Leeds all lost, they’d then be two competition points clear of whoever sits in 7th – Leeds or Catalans.

Whichever of those two it is would have a far inferior points difference to Saints, so catching Paul Wellens’ side on the last day would take an unimaginable swing.

7th-placed Leeds meanwhile COULD mathematically confirm their spot in the play-offs this weekend, but this really would take some doing.

To start with, the Rhinos would need to win at Wigan. Taking that result in isolation, they would move 4th.

And if Salford, Leigh and Saints all lost, that’s where Leeds would sit going into the final round. But for their spot to be mathematically confirmed this weekend, the Rhinos also need Catalans NOT to beat London.

In Round 26, Leigh take on Saints, meaning that only one of those two would be able to catch/overtake Leeds.

If Catalans fail to win this weekend, it would mean that come next weekend, only two sides would be able to catch/overtake Leeds – so Brad Arthur’s side would be guaranteed a 6th place finish at the least.

As unlikely as all of the above happening is this weekend, regardless of results in Round 25, Leeds will still have a mathematical chance of making the top six come the final round.

That might not be the same case for 8th-placed Catalans however. If they were to suffer a shock defeat at home against London, the Dragons would be relying on results elsewhere to have kept them in the race.

A Dragons defeat combined with anything other than losses for Leeds and Saints, and Steve McNamara’s side would be out of the race completely.

Similarly, if Catalans were to draw their game against London, a win for either Leeds or Saints would mathematically end the French outfit’s play-off hopes.

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Bottom place

The fight to avoid Super League’s ‘wooden spoon’ remains as it has been for the vast majority of this year, a two-horse race between London and Hull FC.

The two clubs are locked together on six competition points with just three wins apiece to their name in 2024 as we enter the final two rounds of the campaign.

If London (v Catalans) better the result Hull pick up against Salford, then the Broncos would leapfrog the Airlie Birds and move off the bottom of the ladder.

Alternatively, if Hull were to beat Salford and London were to lose in Perpignan, FC would essentially confirm an 11th-place finish.

It wouldn’t be mathematically rubber-stamped, but the Black and Whites have a substantially better points difference than the capital club, so a giant swing in the final round of the campaign would appear highly unlikely.

Hull sit on a points difference of -492 after 25 rounds with London sat on -541.

In terms of this weekend alone, if both sides are to be beaten, Hull would need to lose by at least 51 points for there to be any chance of them swapping places on the ladder with London.

Even in that instance, the Broncos would have to lose by one point exactly over in France.

If Mike Eccles’ side lose by one and Hull lose by 50 – or any two figures that mean London lose by exactly 49 points fewer than Hull this weekend – then the two sides would be sat level on both competition points and points difference.

If that happens, honestly, go and find the gurus because we have no clue how their placing gets decided then!

If it’s points for, then Hull lead on that front by 11 at the moment. And if it’s head to head, then London have the better of it with two wins against FC this year compared to the Airlie Birds’ one in fixtures between the pair.

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