Salford Red Devils’ positive play-off omen as historical points required for Super League top six revealed
Catalans Dragons, St Helens, Leigh Leopards and Leeds Rhinos
With four rounds to go in the Super League season, the race to reach the play-offs is shaping up to be incredibly compelling.
Salford Red Devils sit in fourth on 28 points, with Leeds Rhinos four points back on 24 – but there are three more sides sandwiched in between that pair.
Leigh Leopards’ late-season revival has brought them to within just one point of two sides: St Helens and Catalans Dragons, who are on 26 points going into the final five fixtures of the 2024 campaign.
With Leigh just behind on 25, and a fairly favourable run-in in the short-term compared to some of their rivals, the notion of the play-off race going right down to the wire seems entirely possible.
But how many points will, traditionally, guarantee you a top six finish in a 27-game season? The previous ten seasons where there have been 27 games will give us a real clue.
The amount of points the side finishing 6th in those seasons gained were:
- 2023: 28 points
- 2022: 28 points
- 2014: 32 points
- 2013: 28 points
- 2012: 32 points
- 2011: 31 points
- 2010: 32 points
- 2009: 28 points
- 2008: 28 points
- 2007: 27 points
There are five teams jostling for three places remaining inside the top six and a quick glance at those totals suggests it’s good news for one club: Salford Red Devils. Paul Rowley’s side already have 28 points – a total which guarantees play-off rugby in six of the ten seasons when there has been 27 games.
With four matches remaining, Salford would be confident of two more wins at least that would practically guarantee play-off rugby in every single 27-game season. They are in the box seat for a play-off spot as it stands and history appears to be on their side, too.
However, the one difference this year is that there won’t just be one side who narrowly misses out on the play-offs: there will be two. There are more points collectively around the positions between fourth and eighth than in many other seasons in history, so the final total may need to be higher.
There are also some enormous games between the five teams in that bracket which could be decisive. Salford host Catalans towards the back end of the season, while the final round sees Leigh play St Helens – that could effectively be a straight shoot-out with the top six.
Historically, St Helens and Catalans Dragons would be close to securing a place in the play-offs with one more win but this year, they may need at least two wins to ensure a top six spot.
The two sides chasing clearly have more work to do. Leigh Leopards are just a point back and would need two wins from their remaining four to stand any sort of chance of making it, you feel.
The same applies for Leeds Rhinos, who need to win two out of four just to get to the minimum total required to make the play-offs in history. The final tally for the top six looks as though it could be far higher this time around.
The average points tally over the ten seasons is actually 29.4: meaning that Leeds and Leigh may well need three wins apiece if they are to keep up with historical averages.
One thing is for certain: it looks increasingly likely that one side will miss out on the top six this year with a points tally that, in several other seasons, would have assured you of a play-off spot.
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