The NRL’s biggest losers begin their inquests as finals footy arrives! The 7-Tackle Set
The regular season is dead, long live the finals.
Everything was on the line this weekend but, in the end, not that much changed. Newcastle downed the Dolphins to secure the final place in the top eight, North Queensland grabbed a home final and Manly didn’t.
That brings a blockbuster to start off with one of Manly or Canterbury going home, likely in front of the biggest crowd of the season so far.
The top four will face off, but it would be a surprise if anything other than Penrith and Melbourne won through to a Preliminary Final.
Everyone else is on Mad Monday, decompressing and deconstructing where it all went wrong. Let’s start our own dissection.
A good week for…
North Queensland, who soundly defeated the Bulldogs on Saturday afternoon, earning themselves a home final and a fifth place spot to finish the regular season.
They’ve not been the fifth best team by any stretch of the imagination and one might expect them to look like that by the time the whips get cracking, but in week one at least, they’ll get a knackered Knights at home and probably win.
This column has referred to the Cowboys as deeply unserious all year, but this is as serious as they have looked and they’ve picked at the perfect time for it.
A bad week for…
Brisbane, who were roundly thrashed on Thursday night to bring the curtain down on a disaster of a year.
The off-season is now entirely about them, and how they respond to a shocking follow-up year after 2023’s Grand Final appearance.
With the roster they have, they should have been nowhere near 12th, but that’s where they ended up. Moreover, it’s increasingly looking like the Grand Final run was a total aberration amid a very middling coaching career for Kevin Walters.
That gets worse still with both John Cartwright and Lee Briers leaving for the Super League, necessitating a backroom rebuild.
2025 is make or break time. Adam Reynolds, injury prone for most of the last five years, is coming to the end and, beyond him, it’s hard to see where they go. If it starts poorly, Kevvie might not be around to find out.
Standout
Mark Nawaqanitawase, who scored on debut for the Roosters on Friday night.
He’s the most high profile player to quit rugby union for league in a very long time – though that might be because rugby union in Australia doesn’t have high profile players anymore – and thus all eyes were on him as a late call-up to face Souths.
NRL fans were promised an athlete and got one, with Marky Mark, as everyone calls him, scoring a spectacular leaping try early on.
There’s a lot to work on in transition, but the raw materials are there. The Roosters know better than anyone else how to craft that, and Trent Robinson has always given a lot of rope to players with potential.
There’s a strong argument that the player he is replacing, Joseph Suaalii, got into the NSW Origin squad despite never really looking completely comfortable with the nuances of rugby league, especially in defence.
One could add that Dom Young is also tolerated for occasional mishaps because his upside in attack is so big, as was Shaun Kenny-Dowall before him. Robbo absolutely accepts an outside back with a mistake in them if they make up for it elsewhere.
Expect to hear a lot more about Mark Nawaqanitawase – who knows, they might even have to learn to pronounce his name…
Washout
It’s tempting to go for the Bulldogs, who receded badly in defeat to the Cowboys, or Manly, who fluffed their lines when a home final was available to them – but both are in the playoffs and don’t really deserve it.
Instead, it is Shane Flanagan and Dragons.
Flanno was lauded for getting his side into the top eight at the first time of asking, but it proved a classic case of speaking too soon as St George Illawarra lost their last three to miss out entirely, ultimately finishing 11th.
When they won in Melbourne, they needed two wins from five remaining on a run that had four at home and a trip to a rank rotten Parramatta. They lost four, defeating only the equally rubbish Titans.
If we’re being charitable, Flanagan did alright with a roster that isn’t good enough causing the side to overachieve in year one.
In year two, however, expectations will kick in. That’s when we’ll find out what the Dragons actually are.
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Everyone is talking about…
The finals – or more accurately, when they are scheduled.
Manly’s loss at home gifted Canterbury home advantage in their finals match and added about 30,000 to the gate and, if you believe reports, about a million dollars to the NRL’s coffers in extra ticket sales.
It also sent the fixtures department into panic mode.
The game was slated for Saturday evening had it been Brookvale, but with Greater Western Sydney Giants also playing a home final in the AFL at the same time across the road from Accor Stadium, it has been moved to Sunday.
That also allowed the NRL to shift the Cowboys-Knights game to Saturday night, which avoids the potential farce of a Townsville afternoon steambath slowing a showpiece match to a crawl. North Queensland barely play in the afternoons in the winter, let alone spring.
It will likely impact next weekend’s scheduling, as the turnarounds will be different, but that’s next weekend’s problem.
The decision was a rare breakout of common sense. More fans can attend on Sunday at Homebush due to the 4pm kick off, plenty of whom might also want to watch their local Aussie Rules outfit go around as well the day before
Much as the NRL treats code wars like a Passchendaele-esque war of attrition, plenty of punters actually enjoy both games, not least at this time of year.
It would made some old, bitter men happy to try to crush the AFL in a head to head, but it really doesn’t serve anyone. The best time for the most important match of the first week is 4pm Sunday in front of the biggest crowd possible. After a fashion, they got there.
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But nobody is mentioning…
The NRLW, which has receded into the background despite being as close as ever. With two weeks to play, one win separates second and sixth.
The Knights, who have won the last two editions, are hanging on in fourth and will be a major challenge should they sneak into the finals, while pre-season favourites the Titans are way back back in seventh.
The Sharks are top and Parramatta and North Queensland are well within a shout. Only the Wests Tigers – who else? – are genuinely uncompetitive.
The fear when they added teams last year would be that it would dilute the competition. Instead, there’s nothing in it.
Forward pass
The start of the finals is the obvious place, and seen as we’ve touched on the two straight knockout ties, let’s focus on the top four.
Cronulla’s bid to finally win a post-season match begins in Melbourne, and despite a strong showing against Manly at the weekend, hopes aren’t high.
They actually beat the Storm at AAMI Park earlier in the year but that was at something of a high point for them and a low point for Craig Bellamy’s men. The second chance is made for the Sharkies, who likely get the Cowboys in Sydney next week.
The Sharks’ finals record is bad, but the Roosters’ record against Penrith is even worse.
They haven’t beaten the Panthers since 2019, a run of nine defeats in a row, so it would be a huge shock if anything changed this weekend given the game is being held at Penrith Park – the last game there before renovation, no less – and the huge injury list at Easts.
Again, they’d be better targeting next week at home to the Dogs or Manly – though as it stands, neither would be outsiders even though the Roosters will have home advantage.
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